A new Bitcoin cycle model, "Akiba Cycle Model v2," projects a potential cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026. According to reports, this projection follows a simulated 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high. The model is built on four Bitcoin cycles and combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation. The framework breaks the cycle into three linked components: drawdown, timing, and recovery multiple. Historical data indicates that peak-to-trough drawdowns have decreased in each cycle. The model estimates the time to reach the cycle low after halving at around 980 days after the April 2024 halving.

A new Bitcoin cycle model, "Akiba Cycle Model v2," projects a potential cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026. According to reports, this projection follows a simulated 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high. The model is built on four Bitcoin cycles and combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation. The framework breaks the cycle into three linked components: drawdown, timing, and recovery multiple. Historical data indicates that peak-to-trough drawdowns have decreased in each cycle. The model estimates the time to reach the cycle low after halving at around 980 days after the April 2024 halving.