A new Bitcoin halving-cycle model, "Akiba Cycle Model v2," projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026. According to reports, this projection follows a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high. The model combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation. The framework breaks the cycle into components including drawdown from a bull-market high to the subsequent cycle low, the days from a halving to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving. The model's timing points to late 2026, estimating 980 days after the April 2024 halving.

A new Bitcoin halving-cycle model, "Akiba Cycle Model v2," projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026. According to reports, this projection follows a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high. The model combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation. The framework breaks the cycle into components including drawdown from a bull-market high to the subsequent cycle low, the days from a halving to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving. The model's timing points to late 2026, estimating 980 days after the April 2024 halving.